Will French PM Barnier survive his second non-confidence vote tomorrow?

New Delhi, Dec 3 : Caught between a combative left bloc comprising all ideological shades and the far-right, hamstrung by a difficult economic situation and a lack of legislative support to even pass the Budget, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier may, by Wednesday – or later this month – set a new record by having the shortest stint in the post.

Passing the social security budget on Monday with the use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution, entailing passage without a vote, and having expressed the possibility of doing so for the budget later this month, the 73-year-old politician has drawn the wrath of the far-right National Rally, which was announced it would vote against him, save for a “last-minute miracle”.

A no-confidence motion may come as soon as Wednesday, and if the National Rally, which saved him in the first no-trust vote soon after he took over in September, follows on its threats, Barnier may be ousted after just around 90 days.

This will break the record of the Fifth French Republic’s shortest-lived Premier Bernard Cazeneuve, who was in the post for 160 days in 2016-17, and considerably shorter than Barnier’s predecessor Gabriel Attal’s 240 days.

The National Rally’s youthful leader Jordan Bardella, whose PM hopes were dashed by a tactical marriage of convenience between President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble Alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front in the second round of the parliamentary elections, has termed the proposed budget “a punishment” that will make the French poorer, and announced it will vote against the government “barring a last-minute miracle”.

The New Popular Front, the largest bloc in the 577-member National Assembly with 192 members, has also no love lost for the Barnier government, since Macron did not invite it to take power as the largest party. It has also expressed opposition to several proposals in the Budget, which seeks to save the government 60 billion euros in order to rein in the fiscal deficit.

Radical Left party France Unbowed’s Jean-Luc Melenchon has already predicted the fall of Barnier’s government well before Christmas as December 21 is the last date for the passage of the Budget.

Against the Front, and the National Rally’s 124 members – or 140 if its ally Eric Ciotti and his faction of The Republicans are added, the 210 votes of Barnier’s right-wing The Republicans and the centrists of Macron’s Ensemble will not be enough.

Barnier has sought to mollify the National Rally by axing the proposed raise of the electricity taxes – a “red line” for the party – and abandoning the 5 per cent cut in medication reimbursements, but its demand for inflation-indexed pension payments may be difficult to consider given the deficit.

On the other hand, the Premier’s problems are not limited to the opposition.

He has raised concerns in Macron’s Ensemble by indicating that he is not a full supporter of “Macronomics”, or the President’s economic policies being followed since 2017, with at least two proposals, concerning corporate and household taxes, and exemptions from employers’ social security contributions, diverging widely from the prevailing orthodoxy.

The changes, the Macron bloc contends, will deter growth and destroy employment. On the other hand, some lawmakers from Barnier’s part question him for not breaking sufficiently from Macronism.

Leave alone the Budget blues, Barnier is also frustrated by a marked lack of authority or influence on the ruling coalition, amid growing friction between his party leader in the Assembly, Laurent Wauquiez, and Macron’s Renaissance group leader and former Prime Minister Attal.

If the Barnier government falls on Wednesday – or later in December – if there is “no last-minute miracle”, President Macron can reappoint him again as Prime Minister or select a new one, bring in a government of technocrats, call a referendum – or quit, since a new election is out of the question till the middle of 2025. However, the President, who is around midway in his second and final term, has repeatedly ruled out the prospect of quitting before his tenure ends in 2027.

Barnier may still survive – or become the latest scapegoat for Macron, but it is the latter who will have a shadow over his legacy given his raft of reckless political decisions this year. This started when he called a snap parliamentary election earlier this year after a drubbing in the European Parliament elections.

With his decisions – the tacit alliance with the NPF to stop the far-right’s projected victory, and then a break with the left, Macron has ended up antagonising both the political extremes, scarcely a wise step in a time when the centrist space is shrinking.

A new Prime Minister and government may come but the extreme polarisation engendered by Macron’s political moves is unlikely to vanish soon.